Enhancements in the Techa River Dosimetry System: TRDS-2016D Code for Reconstruction of Deterministic Estimates of Dose From Environmental Exposures.

Waterborne releases to the Techa River from the Mayak plutonium facility in Russia during 1949-1956 resulted in significant doses to persons living downstream. The dosimetry system Techa River Dosimetry System-2016D has been developed, which provides individual doses of external and internal exposure for the members of the Techa River cohort and other persons who were exposed to releases of radioactive material to the Southern Urals. The results of computation of individual doses absorbed in red bone marrow and extraskeletal tissues for the Techa River cohort members (29,647 persons) are presented, which are based on residence histories on the contaminated Techa River and the East Urals Radioactive Trace, which was formed in 1957 as a result of the Kyshtym Accident. Available Sr body-burden measurements and available information on individual household locations have been used for refinement of individual dose estimates. Techa River Dosimetry System-2016D-based dose estimates will be used for verification of risk of low-dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation in the Techa River cohort.

External dose reconstruction in tooth enamel of Techa riverside residents.

This study summarizes the 20-year efforts for dose reconstruction in tooth enamel of the Techa riverside residents exposed to ionizing radiation as a result of radionuclide releases into the river in 1949-1956. It represents the first combined analysis of all the data available on EPR dosimetry with teeth of permanent residents of the Techa riverside territory. Results of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements of 302 teeth donated by 173 individuals living permanently in Techa riverside settlements over the period of 1950-1952 were analyzed. These people were residents of villages located at the free-flowing river stream or at the banks of stagnant reservoirs such as ponds or blind river forks. Cumulative absorbed doses measured using EPR are from several sources of exposure, viz., background radiation, internal exposure due to bone-seeking radionuclides (89Sr, 90Sr/90Y), internal exposure due to 137Cs/137mBa incorporated in soft tissues, and anthropogenic external exposure. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of different sources of enamel exposure and to deduce external doses to be used for validation of the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). Since various EPR methods were used, harmonization of these methods was critical. Overall, the mean cumulative background dose was found to be 63 ± 47 mGy; cumulative internal doses due to 89Sr and 90Sr/90Y were within the range of 10-110 mGy; cumulative internal doses due to 137Cs/137mBa depend on the distance from the site of releases and varied from 1 mGy up to 90 mGy; mean external doses were maximum for settlements located at the banks of stagnant reservoirs (~500 mGy); in contrast, external doses for settlements located along the free-flowing river stream did not exceed 160 mGy and decreased downstream with increasing distance from the site of release. External enamel doses calculated using the TRDS code and derived from the EPR measurements were found to be in good agreement.

Analysis of EPR and FISH studies of radiation doses in persons who lived in the upper reaches of the Techa River.

Waterborne radioactive releases into the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association in Russia during 1949-1956 resulted in significant doses to about 30,000 persons who lived in downstream settlements. The residents were exposed to internal and external radiation. Two methods for reconstruction of the external dose are considered in this paper, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements of teeth, and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) measurements of chromosome translocations in circulating lymphocytes. The main issue in the application of the EPR and FISH methods for reconstruction of the external dose for the Techa Riverside residents was strontium radioisotopes incorporated in teeth and bones that act as a source of confounding local exposures. In order to estimate and subtract doses from incorporated (89,90)Sr, the EPR and FISH assays were supported by measurements of (90)Sr-body burdens and estimates of (90)Sr concentrations in dental tissues by the luminescence method. The resulting dose estimates derived from EPR to FISH measurements for residents of the upper Techa River were found to be consistent: The mean values vary from 510 to 550 mGy for the villages located close to the site of radioactive release to 130-160 mGy for the more distant villages. The upper bound of individual estimates for both methods is equal to 2.2-2.3 Gy. The EPR- and FISH-based dose estimates were compared with the doses calculated for the donors using the most recent Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The TRDS external dose assessments are based on the data on contamination of the Techa River floodplain, simulation of air kerma above the contaminated soil, age-dependent lifestyles and individual residence histories. For correct comparison, TRDS-based doses were calculated from two sources: external exposure from the contaminated environment and internal exposure from (137)Cs incorporated in donors' soft tissues. It is shown here that the TRDS-based absorbed doses in tooth enamel and muscle are in agreement with EPR- and FISH-based estimates within uncertainty bounds. Basically, this agreement between the estimates has confirmed the validity of external doses calculated with the TRDS.

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Reconstruction of long-lived radionuclide intakes for Techa riverside residents: 137Cs.

Radioactive contamination of the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia) occurred from 1949-1956 due to routine and accidental releases of liquid radioactive wastes from the Mayak Production Association. The long-lived radionuclides in the releases were Sr and Cs. Contamination of the components of the Techa River system resulted in chronic external and internal exposure of about 30,000 residents of riverside villages. Data on radionuclide intake with diet are used to estimate internal dose in the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS), which was elaborated for the assessment of radiogenic risk for Techa Riverside residents. The Sr intake function was recently improved, taking into account the recently available archival data on radionuclide releases and in-depth analysis of the extensive data on Sr measurements in Techa Riverside residents. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the dietary intake of Cs by Techa Riverside residents. The Cs intake with river water used for drinking was reconstructed on the basis of the Sr intake-function and the concentration ratio Cs-to-Sr in river water. Intake via Cs transfer from floodplain soil to grass and cows' milk was evaluated for the first time. As a result, the maximal Cs intake level was indicated near the site of releases in upper-Techa River settlements (8,000-9,000 kBq). For villages located on the lower Techa River, the Cs intake was significantly less (down to 300 kBq). Cows' milk was the main source of Cs in diet in the upper-Techa River region.

Reconstruction of the contamination of the Techa River in 1949-1951 as a result of releases from the "Mayak" Production Association.

More accurate reconstruction of the radioactive contamination of the Techa River system in 1949-1951 has been made on the basis of refined data on the amounts and the rate of discharge of radionuclides into the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association; this has led to the development of a modified Techa River model that describes the transport of radionuclides through the up-river ponds and along the Techa River and deposition of radionuclides in the river-bottom sediments and flooded areas. The refined Techa River source-term data define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and radionuclide composition of the releases that occurred during 1949-1951. The Techa River model takes into account the time-dependent characteristics of the releases and considers (a) the transport of radionuclides adsorbed on solid particles originally contained in the discharges or originating in the up-river ponds as a result of stirring up of contaminated bottom sediments and (b) the transport of radionuclides in soluble form. The output of the Techa River model provides concentrations of all source-term radionuclides in the river water, bottom sediments, and floodplain soils at different distances from the site of radioactive releases for the period of major contamination in 1950-1951. The outputs of the model show good agreement with historical measurements of water and sediment contamination. In addition, the river-model output for (90)Sr concentration in the river water is harmonized with retrospective estimates derived from the measurements of (90)Sr in the residents of the Techa Riverside villages. Modeled contamination of the floodplain soils by (137)Cs is shown to be in agreement with the values reconstructed from late measurements of this radionuclide. Reconstructed estimates of the Techa River contamination are being used for the quantification of internal and external doses received by residents of the Techa Riverside communities.

Reevaluation of waterborne releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association into the Techa River in 1949-1951.

The Mayak Production Association was the first site for the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Russia. Early operations led to the waterborne release of radioactive materials into the small Techa River. Residents living downstream used river water for drinking and other purposes. The releases and subsequent flooding resulted in deposition of sediments along the shoreline and on floodplain soil. Primary routes of exposure were external dose from the deposited sediments and ingestion of 90Sr and other radionuclides. Study of the Techa River Cohort has revealed an increased incidence of leukemia and solid cancers. Epidemiologic studies are supported by extensive dose-reconstruction activities that have led to various versions of a Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The correctness of the TRDS has been challenged by the allegation that releases of short-lived radionuclides were much larger than those used in the TRDS. Although the dosimetry system depends more upon measurements of 90Sr in humans and additional measurements of radionuclides and of exposure rates in the environment, a major activity has been undertaken to define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and their radionuclide composition. The major releases occurred during 1950-1951 in the form of routine releases and major accidental releases. The reevaluated amount of total release is 114 PBq, about half of which was from accidents that occurred in late 1951. The time-dependent composition of the radionuclides released has also been reevaluated. The improved understanding presented in this paper is possible because of access to many documents not previously available.

Cortical bone resorption rate in elderly persons: estimates from long-term in vivo measurements of (90)Sr in the skeleton.

The rate of cortical bone resorption was assessed from long-term in vivo measurements of (90)Sr content in the skeleton for men aged 50-80 years and for women 0-30 years after menopause. Measurements of (90)Sr were conducted with a whole body counter (WBC) for residents of the Techa Riverside communities (Southern Urals, Russia), who ingested large amounts of (90)Sr as a result of releases of liquid radioactive wastes into the river from the Mayak plutonium facility in early 1950s. The results of this study showed an increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption in both men and women, as based on the use of accidentally ingested (90)Sr as a tracer for bone metabolism. In men there was a continuous gradual increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption after 55 years from 2.8 to 4.5%/year by the age of 75 years. In women, there was a doubled increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption after menopause of up to 6%/year; then the rate remained unchanged for 10-12 years with a subsequent gradual decline down to 5-5.5%/year. Comparison of the rate of cortical bone resorption in men and women older than 55 years showed that women expressed significantly higher levels of cortical bone resorption.

Reconstruction of long-lived radionuclide intakes for Techa riverside residents: strontium-90.

Releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association in 1949-1956 resulted in contamination of the Techa River; a nuclide of major interest was 90Sr, which downstream residents consumed with water from the river and with milk contaminated by cows' consumption of river water and contaminated pasture. Over the years, several reconstructions of dose have been performed for the approximately 30,000 persons who make up the Extended Techa River Cohort. The purpose of the study described here was to derive a revised reference-90Sr-intake function for the members of this cohort. The revision was necessary because recently discovered data have provided a more accurate description of the time course of the releases, and more is now known about the importance of the pasture grass-cow-milk pathway for the members of this cohort. The fundamental basis for the derivation of the reference-90Sr-intake function remains the same: thousands of measurements of 90Sr content in bone with a special whole-body counter, thousands of measurements of beta-activity of front teeth with a special tooth-beta counter, and a variety of other measurements, including post mortem measurements of 90Sr in bone, measurements of 90Sr in cow's milk, and measurements of beta activity in human excreta. Results of the new analyses are that the major intake started in September 1950 and peaked somewhat later than originally postulated. However, the total intake for adult residents has not changed significantly. For children of some birth years, the intake and incorporation of Sr in bone tissue have changed substantially.

Contribution of internal exposures to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

The main pathways leading to exposure of members of the general public due to the Chernobyl accident were external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of contaminated terrestrial food products. The collective dose to the thyroid was nearly 1.5 million man Gy in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine with nearly half received by children and adolescents. The collective effective dose received in 1986-2005 by approximately five million residents living in the affected areas of the three countries was approximately 50,000 man Sv with approximately 40% from ingestion. That contribution might have been larger if countermeasures had not been applied. The main radionuclide contributing to both external and internal effective dose is 137Cs with smaller contributions of 134Cs and 90Sr and negligible contribution of transuranic elements. The major demonstrated radiation-caused health effect of the Chernobyl accident has been an elevated incidence of thyroid cancer in children.

An approach to reduction of uncertainties in internal doses reconstructed for the Techa River population.

A methodology was developed for reduction of uncertainties in estimates of internal dose for residents of the Techa Riverside communities, who were exposed as a result of releases of radionuclides from the Mayak plutonium production facility in 1949-56. The 'Techa River Dosimetry System' (TRDS) was specifically elaborated for reconstruction of doses. A preliminary analysis of uncertainty for doses estimated using the current version of the TRDS showed large ranges in the uncertainty of internal absorbed dose and led to suggestions of methods to reduce uncertainties. The new methodological approaches described in this paper will allow for significant reduction of uncertainties of 90Sr-dose. The major sources of reduction are: making use of individual measured values of 90Sr and through development of a Household Registry to associate unmeasured persons with measured persons living in the same household(s).

Development of an improved dose reconstruction system for the Techa River population affected by the operation of the Mayak Production Association.

The Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS) has been developed to provide estimates of dose received by approximately 30,000 members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC). Members of the ETRC were exposed beginning in 1949 to significant levels of external and internal (mainly from (90)Sr) dose but at low to moderate dose rates. Members of this cohort are being studied in an effort to test the hypothesis that exposure at low to moderate dose rates has the same ability to produce stochastic health effects as exposure at high dose rates. The current version of the TRDS is known as TRDS-2000 and is the subject of this paper. The estimated doses from (90)Sr are supported strongly by approximately 30,000 measurements made with a tooth beta-particle counter, measurements of bones collected at autopsy, and approximately 38,000 measurements made with a special whole-body counter that detects the bremsstrahlung from (90)Y. The median doses to the red bone marrow and the bone surface are 0.21 and 0.37 Gy, respectively. The maximum doses to the red bone marrow and bone surface are 2.0 and 5.2 Gy, respectively. Distributions of dose to other organs are provided and are lower than the values given above. Directions for future work are discussed.

Measurement of 129 I and 137 Cs in soils from Belarus and reconstruction of 131I deposition from the Chernobyl accident.

I and Cs have been measured in a large number of soil samples collected throughout the country of Belarus to support efforts for thyroid-dose reconstruction following the Chernobyl accident. Samples of soil consisting of multiple 30-cm-deep cores per site were sampled following a selection process to ensure sites were undisturbed and representative. Samples were measured by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for I, gamma spectrometry for Cs, and gas chromatography (GC) for total iodine. Results show that both I and Cs are retained firmly in the top approximately 15 to 20 cm of the soil. Our results also suggest that the correlation between I and Cs deposition across the country of Belarus is poor; hence, I is a better surrogate for I than is Cs. It was also noted that total iodine concentrations in topsoil from Belarus are low compared with other regions of the world where radiogenic thyroid cancer has been studied.

Evaluation of age and gender dependences of the rate of strontium elimination 25-45 years after intake: analysis of data from residents living along the Techa river.

The Mayak Production Association released large amounts of 90Sr into the Techa River with peak amounts in 1950-1951. Residents near the Techa River ingested an average of approximately 3,000 kBq of 90Sr. The affected people have been followed by scientists at the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine. The whole-body content of 90Sr of approximately 15,000 individuals has been measured over a period of 24 years (1974-1997) using a special whole-body counter. This report evaluates the gender and age dependences of individual rates of strontium elimination. Data on persons who had been measured 12 or more times were selected for study. There were 108 men and 81 women older than 30 years who met this criterion. Individual measurement results were fitted to an exponential function and grouped mean averages of the rate of strontium elimination as a function of age for each sex were derived. For men, a significant increase (from 2.8% year(-1) to 3.2% year(-1)) in the rate of strontium elimination after age 55 years is seen. For women, the increase in the rate of elimination was significant at age 45 and reached 5.8% year(-1) after the age of 60. The results may be used to develop a gender- and age-dependent model of strontium metabolism.

Evaluation of uncertainties in 90Sr-body-burdens obtained by whole-body count: application of Bayes' rule to derive detection limits by analysis of a posteriori data.

A whole body counter (WBC) designed to measure bremsstrahlung from 90Y, the short-lived daughter of 90Sr, has been used since 1974 to measure 90Sr-body burdens in residents along the Techa River, which was contaminated by releases from the Mayak Production Association. Bayes' rule has been applied to the a posteriori WBC data in order to derive the uncertainties associated with the data: The lower limit of reliable detection is 2.0 kBq and the uncertainty of routine measurements is 1.6 kBq.